Potential Rise of Bitcoin After the US Elections: Insights from Historical Data
According to historical data, Bitcoin is expected to surpass $100,000 after the US elections. Compared to previous cycles, Bitcoin’s valuation currently seems relatively low, whether from its cycle low points or performance since its last halving event.
Historical Performance of Bitcoin
Since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, there have been three presidential elections, and the price has increased significantly since then. From 11 at the 2012 election to over 11 in 2013 to over 1,100 in 2013, to 700 at the 2016 election, and soared to 700 at the end of 2017, and soared to 18,000 at the end of 2017. In 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic, Bitcoin After rising 478% after the election, the price reached about 69,000 a year later and hit a new high of 73,000 in March 2024.
The Impact of Elections on Bitcoin
After each election, Bitcoin’s price is significantly higher than it was four years prior, although the rate of increase has gradually diminished. For example, the increase from the first to the second election was reduced by 70%, and from the second to the third by 87%. If this trend continues, assuming a decrease of 90% this time, Bitcoin is expected to rise by about 47.8% post-election, potentially reaching around $103,500 by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Current Market Situation
It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s price is still relatively undervalued compared to previous cycles. Whether considering the cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022 or the performance since the halving event in April 2024, Bitcoin’s performance has been disappointing. In fact, it has experienced the worst performance since the halving, with the current price only 7% higher than at the time of the halving, further validating the theory of diminishing returns.
Conclusion
In summary, historical data indicates that US elections positively influence Bitcoin’s price. As market volatility and uncertainty gradually diminish, Bitcoin is likely to experience a significant rise. Investors should pay attention to the impending election results and their potential impact on the market to seize possible investment opportunities.
